Sports Weekly special reporter Yang Jian
In the upper half, where goals were frequently scored, and in the lower half, where battles were constant, those who finally won were the ultimate examples of style. Paris Saint-Germain, who contributed to the best semi-final in history, successfully escaped from Allianz; while Arsenal, which has always been forbearing, restrained and highly disciplined, made Simeone, who pioneered the pragmatist faction, unconvinced on the surface but convinced in his heart in front of Arteta.
The second season of the Swiss round of the Champions League is also the second season of contradictory confrontations, except that the spear-bearer is still Paris, but the one waving the shield has been changed from Inter Milan to Arsenal. In terms of the remaining schedule, personnel reserves and external public opinion, Paris has the advantage. Facing the new "Space Team", the "Earth Defense Battle" has not yet started. From the perspective of big data, is Arsenal already scheduled to be the runner-up?
Schedule battle: 1 point to win the championship, 1 point to lose the championship?
Just from the perspective of the remaining schedule, Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal have only three remaining league games. In addition, there is also the Champions League final game. However, in the final stage of the league at the end of winter and early spring, Paris Saint-Germain seemed calm and leisurely throughout the process, while Arsenal was always running hard.
After suffering a Coupe de France derby defeat in January, Paris Saint-Germain has actually been in a two-front battle for the past four months, while Arsenal did not bid farewell to two domestic cup competitions until the end of March and the beginning of April, enduring physical and emotional exhaustion for no reason. In the sprint stage of the league, Arsenal, which has played one more round for a long time, is under tremendous pressure in almost every round; what about Paris? In order to ensure that they can go all out in foreign games, they have made many requests to the Ligue 1 league to reschedule the game, and all of them have been approved. In particular, the first-place game that was supposed to be played on April 11 was postponed to May 13 after Paris advanced to the final. This directly caused Lens, second in Ligue 1, to have no games for half a month.
One league was in a state of herding, while the other was in a state of involution all day long. Until the end of the season, the two teams still showed a situation of "drought to death, waterlogging to death". Paris leads with 6 points. Although theoretically speaking, it still needs 4 points to win the championship. But in fact, as long as it draws with Lens in the make-up, there will basically be no problem in defending the Ligue 1 title. After all, Paris' current goal difference is 15 more than Lens. Compared with Paris who can win the championship if they score 1 point, Arsenal still has a probability of losing the championship if they get about 50% of the points in one of the remaining three games, and this probability is quite high. Especially after experiencing a war of attrition with Atletico Madrid, West Ham, who will face the relegation in the derby this weekend, has really just come out of the dragon pool and entered the tiger's den.
There is a huge disparity in the pressure during the game, which also implies that there is a very large gap in the physical consumption and health management of the main players of both sides. On the Paris side, except for Chevalier, who has been reduced to the second goalkeeper, there are no other injured players. In particular, Dembele, who had been injured for a long time in the second half of last year, recovered in time and showed the same level of performance as in the knockout rounds of last season; on the Arsenal side, Merino and Timber have two long-term injuries. It is still unclear when the injured player will be able to return, especially the absence of the Dutch full-back has the most serious impact. Ben White faces Kvaradzhelia in the final. Will the English defender repeat his outstanding performance in the second leg against Atletico Madrid, or will he once again show a more common embarrassing situation?
Psychological battle: Conservative style of play, nothing to lose?
Speaking of teams that use defensive counterattacks as their main tactics, the squatting method, which seems to consume less energy but can yield more results, seems to be regarded as the best answer in the current version. However, in fact, it may not withstand careful and careful consideration. At the beginning of this season, everyone had high expectations for Arsenal, but don't forget about Inter Milan last season, when they got nothing and came up empty-handed.
At that time, the Nerazzurri's output at the end of the season was even expected to be higher than that of Arsenal now. However, Inzaghi despised the league's attitude of attaching importance to the Champions League. As a result, the Nerazzurri suffered a three-game losing streak at the end of April. In the second round of the Italian Cup, they were beaten 3-0 by AC Milan and were eliminated. In the Serie A, they lost to Bologna and Italy. Roma lost the initiative to compete for the championship. Although they won the long-term duel with Barcelona, the team's spirit suffered a huge setback under the blow of successive championship losses. They were severely slaughtered by Paris in the Champions League final. Although this was due to the gap in hard power, it also had a lot to do with the many disputes about the team's strategic choices and the fluctuation of the team's mentality.
Nowadays, Arsenal, who have abandoned their beautiful football fantasies and returned to a pragmatic and disciplined route, has indeed shown the best defensive performance in the Champions League this season, conceding only 6 goals in 14 games. However, facing Paris, which is only 1 goal away from tying Barcelona's 2000 Champions League scoring record, with 44 goals, it is difficult to know whether they can persist to the end under football rules that are more biased towards protecting offense. The two games against Manchester City in 2026 both ended in losses, which has proven that under extreme output conditions, achieving a clean sheet will be an extremely difficult task.
Looking at past history, the Arsenal team that always adhered to defensive counterattacks in the Champions League also failed in the end. The Gunners, who successfully reached the Champions League final 20 years ago, had not allowed their opponents to score a single goal in the three knockout rounds before that, but the paper data is more advantageous than the team led by Arteta. However, at the Stade de France, the team coached by Arsene Wenger was sent off one man shortly after the start of the game. Even so, they took the lead in using the special skill of set pieces to successfully find Campbell and take the lead. However, under the fierce momentum of Barcelona's forward attack, the Gunners, who were missing one man, ended up conceding two goals in succession, and there was no way to save the defeat.
The Gunners of that year managed to maintain fourth place in the Premier League. The FA Cup stopped in the fourth round, the League Cup was eliminated in the semi-finals, and they lost to Chelsea in the Community Shield earlier. The only remaining Champions League front also ended in failure.
The debate between elder and younger: The older you get, the more popular you become?
In the Champions League final, both teams were coached by Spanish coaches. This was the first time. Taking a comprehensive look at the entire history of the Champions League, there were only three instances in which the coach was at odds with one another in the finals.
Before Enrique and Arteta, there had been three encounters between coaches from the same country. They were Flick versus Tuchel in 2020, and Heynckes versus Klopp in 2013. Which year was it? Ancelotti versus Lippi in 2003. The first two were in Serie A and Bundesliga. In the final meeting, Flick, who coaches his own team, participated for the third time. This time it was different. Enrique Arteta had been working with the same team overseas for many years. The meeting not only matched the odds of winning the championship, but also coincided with the trend. What kind of trend is this? La Liga coaches are spreading their wings overseas.
Although it is impossible to draw lessons from the past, what is strange is that in the first three confrontations between foreign coaches, the older team won more often. Except for Heynckes and Flick, even Lippi in 2003 only lost to Ancelotti on a penalty kick. Moreover, Juventus, coached by Silver Fox at that time, was the most unlucky final loser in the history of the Champions League.
Speaking of the duel between the two coaches, the team led by Arteta has only lost 2 of the recent 24 Champions League games. However, these two losses happened to be in the semi-finals last year, when they lost to Paris at home and away. Let's look at Enrique again. Facing this junior who "adjusted his starting lineup more than 20 times on the iPad", he appears to be more sophisticated. Before last year's semifinals, Paris conceded a total of 50 goals on all fronts. After careful calculation, 19 of the goals conceded were due to set-piece tactics, accounting for as high as 38%. However, people outside felt that when the Arsenal team that defeated Real Madrid by relying on set pieces in the quarter-finals repeated its old tricks, Paris never allowed its opponents to successfully board the subway in the two rounds of the game. For Paris, which lacks an absolute high point in the defense, preventing air attacks is even more worthy of writing than scoring goals.
Since the implementation of the Swiss round system, the Premier League has been sowing but reaping little, and it obviously relies on Arsenal, the only young talent, to restore its dignity. However, Enrique has experienced the knockout rounds of the Champions League seven times in his career, and has successfully passed all Premier League teams. He will bring them the most severe test.